Welcome to Front Porch LLC

What’s the forecast for 2007?

A lot more of the same.

I have read the gurus that write for the big financial publications, but the blogger Property Grunt gave the best advice:

“Those of you need to buy, make sure you can afford the payments and stay the hell away from interest only or exotic mortgages. Stick to the tried and true fixed rate. Those of you who wish to invest, remember to do your due diligence and if the deal doesn’t make sense. Walk away. The cashflow has to make sense or you are going to royally screw yourself over.

If you are a seller, exercise common sense and consider reducing your prices if you are not generating interest. ”

What effect will the Goldman Sachs bonuses have on the real estate market?

I love this story. Every year there’s a great year on Wall Street, the media acts like the people who made these gigantic bonuses — who probably made them by knowing something about money — are going to act like they’ve never seen money before.

Probably not likely. Of course some of the spending is classic: Porsches, expensive watches, Vegas. But as far as real estate goes? The bonus-baby bias is generally toward renting, in expectation of a softer sale market in 2008.

But that’s okay, I can rent you a very nice loft for $15K a month while you bank your proceeds.

What’s the overlooked real estate story of the month?

The Fannie Mae conforming loan limits* were announced earlier this week, and they didn’t change.
I didn’t see this story picked up in NY — though I chatted with a couple of journo friends so hopefully it will be.
As I posted on wiredny.com, this was the first time in 12 years the limits haven’t risen.

What does this mean? I’m no economist but I think

1) that it’s a sign that housing prices nationwide are losing momentum
2) that it’s a sign that the government is trying to prop up prices nationwide, since the underlying data should have called for a reduction in loan limits, which the government very pointedly avoided.

Like many NYC real estate people I feel like we’re a market unto ourselves, but it’s still good to know what’s going on nationwide.

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*the level at which the government, via Fannie Mae, offers support to the smaller-mortgage market; now set at around $400K for a one-family home. Sorry, Brooklynites, the conforming loan limits didn’t change for multi-family homes either.

I’m from out of town. How do I get an idea of what Greenwich Village is like?

Well, you could rent a Woody Allen movie. Or you see some fabulous still photos: Go to Wired New York (www.wirednewyork.com) and hit the “community” tab. You’ll get a bunch of different forums. Near the top, under the “City Guide” heading, will be an underlined “New York City Guide for Visitors” : Sub forum: “Photos of New York.”

So go ahead, click “Photos of New York.” The gorgeous townhouse shot above was taken by member “ablarc” on the Greenwich Village thread.

If you like short films, you can go to www.turnhere.com (a site founded by real estate guru Brad Inman himself) and watch four-minute local movies. Many of them are a little too deliberately “indie,” but check out:

http://www.turnhere.com/city/new_york/greenwich_east_villages/films/519.aspx

for a broker showing a $3.2 million apartment (sorry, kids, it’s sold). A typical luxury apartment would look like this, with smaller bedrooms and no wine room;

the kitchen, bath, and finishes are all typical for a new high-end downtown project. Check out the exposed brick and keyed elevator entrance straight into the apartment, both Tribeca features brought to the Village. (And ignore the lousy view you get for $3.2 million!)

For a little West Village character,

http://www.turnhere.com/city/new_york/chelsea_west_village/films/293.aspx

is a short of a local chef wandering around foodie heaven.

How do I make sense of the third-quarter market reports?

Five market reports came out yesterday indicating that Manhattan prices went up, down, sideways: here’s a posting I did on wirednewyork.com:

No one buys “the median” apartment. More meaningful is that average days on market have lengthened, from 133 in last year’s third quarter to 150 this year’s, according to Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel (who does reports for Elliman but is considered an authoritative independent voice). And negotiability (difference between asking price and contract price) is increasing, to 4%.

In the field (and on this board) it still seems bifurcated: buyers are happy to pay a premium $1200-$1500 per square foot for new condos with snazzy amenities, whether or not the floors are going to scratch. Developers won’t (can’t?) cut prices on these buildings, though they will now pick up some closing costs and subsidize the buyers’ financing. (ask your friendly agent what deals you can get).

Co-ops, meanwhile, are a slog. If a seller comes out of the gate high, they sit and sit and sit and sit. If a seller comes out of the gate at an appropriate price, they sell, but it takes a lot of marketing to find the buyer who’s ready to move as opposed to the window shopper. Recommendation to buyers: if you see a co-op you like, get your financing and your co-op package together and try offering 7% off asking .. .

How is square footage determined?

It has long been known in New York City that square footage is somehow more than the sum of its parts. (This fact is especially glaring to those of us who live in studios that measure A * B; our square footage is somehow always more than A * B, even more than A * B plus 100 square feet for the kitchen and bath.

Square footage doesn’t correlate with what you see for a number of reasons: you measure to the interior of your walls, but real estate people measure to the exterior; a portion of the square footage of common hallways can be included in your square footage number; and realtors tend to “round up,” so “702″ becomes “approximately 750.”

But just because square footage is somewhat fungible doesn’t mean it is totally so. I am reminded of this because a friend saw a condo in Carroll Gardens where the square footage (contrary to industry ethics) was not advertised.

When she asked about it, she was told, “We came out at 950, but we didn’t like the number we came out with, so we’re thinking of having it remeasured.”

Remeasured by who? Non-euclidean geometers?

So it’s worth reminding that condo square footage is a matter of public record, and if you want me to look up a number for you; I’m happy to: email me at alir @frontporchllc.com

More on how to count square footage at this link  (a lot it is about houses, not apartments)

We’ve been trying to sell our apartment ourselves and the market’s been dead. Should we hire a broker?

There are a whole bunch of real estate agents who try to get business by going to people who are selling their apartments themselves — and saying, hey, I can do a better job. The argument is that a real estate agent knows how to show your house, how to attract buyers, and how to put together a co-op board package.

While I’m all on the I-do-a-better-job side, I wouldn’t want your business. And what successful agent would? Working with clients who are broker-averse is like trying to deal with a sick person who hates hospitals.

My advice is to spend a few hundred dollars to have a professional photographer take good digital pictures of your place and start running some advertising. If interest doesn’t pick up in three weeks, cut your price.

What are the top real estate websites?

According to a May 8, 2006 USA Today article using ComScore Media Metrix numbers:
Homestore.com Network (9.6 million visitors)

HomeGain.com (4.8 million visitors)

AOL Real Estate (4.0 million visitors)

MSN Real Estate (3.7 million visitors)

Rent.com (2.9 million visitors)

RealtyTrac (2.9 million visitors)

Apartments.com (2.4 million visitors)

Zillow.com (2.3 million visitors)

Service Magic (2.1 million visitors)

Yahoo Real Estate (1.8 million visitors)

I’m selling a condo, what do I need from the board?

Often a condo board will retain a “right of first refusal,” which means they have the right to buy your apartment before you sell it to an outsider. (For a neat column about possible legal entanglements, click this Stroock link.) In order to get the board to release your apartment, there may be a form you have to fill out stating that you have an agreement to sell it for $XXX,000, and do you have their permission to sell it?

Most of the time this is a rubber-stamp procedure, but like everything else, it can take a while, so ask right after you’ve got a signed contract.

I’m selling, and my agent doesn’t follow up with every buyer’s agent. Should I?

I found this question on Craigslist, and I sat down and practically wrote a book about it. Here’s what I said:

Not everyone who sees your house is going to be interested. The last property I showed was seen by about fifty people, three of whom were actually serious.

ali @dgneary.com